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Abstract The circumgalactic medium (CGM) around massive galaxies plays a crucial role in regulating star formation and feedback. Using the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS) suite, we develop emulators for the X-ray surface brightness profile and the X-ray luminosity–stellar mass scaling relation, to investigate how stellar and active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback shape the X-ray properties of the hot CGM. Our analysis shows that at CGM scales (10¹²≲M_halo/M_⊙≲ 10¹³, 10 ≲rkpc⁻¹≲ 400), stellar feedback more significantly impacts the X-ray properties than AGN feedback within the parameters studied. Comparing the emulators to recent eROSITA All Sky Survey (eRASS) observations, it is found that stronger feedback than is currently implemented in the IllustrisTNG, SIMBA, and Astrid simulations is required to match the observed CGM properties. However, adopting these enhanced feedback parameters causes deviations in the stellar mass–halo mass relations from observational constraints below the group-mass scale. This tension suggests possible unaccounted-for systematics in X-ray CGM observations or inadequacies in the feedback models of cosmological simulations. 

Abstract Recent works have discovered a relatively tight correlation between Ω_mand the properties of individual simulated galaxies. Because of this, it has been shown that constraints on Ω_mcan be placed using the properties of individual galaxies while accounting for uncertainties in astrophysical processes such as feedback from supernovae and active galactic nuclei. In this work, we quantify whether using the properties of multiple galaxies simultaneously can tighten those constraints. For this, we train neural networks to perform likelihood-free inference on the value of two cosmological parameters (Ω_mandσ₈) and four astrophysical parameters using the properties of several galaxies from thousands of hydrodynamic simulations of the CAMELS project. We find that using properties of more than one galaxy increases the precision of the Ω_minference. Furthermore, using multiple galaxies enables the inference of other parameters that were poorly constrained with one single galaxy. We show that the same subset of galaxy properties are responsible for the constraints on Ω_mfrom one and multiple galaxies. Finally, we quantify the robustness of the model and find that without identifying the model range of validity, the model does not perform well when tested on galaxies from other galaxy formation models. 

ABSTRACT Detecting dual active galactic nuclei (DAGNs) in observations and understanding theoretically which massive black holes (MBHs) compose them and in which galactic and large-scale environment they reside are becoming increasingly important questions as we enter the multimessenger era of MBH astronomy. This paper presents the abundance and properties of DAGN produced in nine large-scale cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. We focus on DAGN powered by AGN with $$L_{\rm bol}\geqslant 10^{43}\, \rm erg\, s^{-1}$$ and belonging to distinct galaxies, i.e. pairs that can be characterized with current and near-future electromagnetic observations. We find that the number density of DAGN separated by a few to 30 proper kpc varies from $$10^{-8}$$ (or none) to $$10^{-3} \, \rm comoving\, Mpc^{3}$$ in the redshift range $$z=0\!-\!7$$. At a given redshift, the densities of the DAGN numbers vary by up to two orders of magnitude from one simulation to another. However, for all simulations, the DAGN peak is in the range $$z=1\!-\!3$$, right before the peak of cosmic star formation or cosmic AGN activity. The corresponding fractions of DAGN (with respect to the total number of AGN) range from 0 per cent to 6 per cent. We find that simulations could produce too few DAGN at $z=0$ (or merge pairs too quickly) compared to current observational constraints while being consistent with preliminary constraints at high redshift ($$z\sim 3$$). Next-generation observatories (e.g. Advanced X-Ray Imaging Satellite [AXIS]) will be of paramount importance to detect DAGN across cosmic times. We predict the detectability of DAGN with future X-ray telescopes and discuss DAGN as progenitors for future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) gravitational wave detections. 

Abstract Galaxies are biased tracers of the underlying cosmic web, which is dominated by dark matter (DM) components that cannot be directly observed. Galaxy formation simulations can be used to study the relationship between DM density fields and galaxy distributions. However, this relationship can be sensitive to assumptions in cosmology and astrophysical processes embedded in galaxy formation models, which remain uncertain in many aspects. In this work, we develop a diffusion generative model to reconstruct DM fields from galaxies. The diffusion model is trained on the CAMELS simulation suite that contains thousands of state-of-the-art galaxy formation simulations with varying cosmological parameters and subgrid astrophysics. We demonstrate that the diffusion model can predict the unbiased posterior distribution of the underlying DM fields from the given stellar density fields while being able to marginalize over uncertainties in cosmological and astrophysical models. Interestingly, the model generalizes to simulation volumes ≈500 times larger than those it was trained on and across different galaxy formation models. The code for reproducing these results can be found athttps://github.com/victoriaono/variational-diffusion-cdm✎. 

ABSTRACT We quantify the cosmological spread of baryons relative to their initial neighbouring dark matter distribution using thousands of state-of-the-art simulations from the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS) project. We show that dark matter particles spread relative to their initial neighbouring distribution owing to chaotic gravitational dynamics on spatial scales comparable to their host dark matter halo. In contrast, gas in hydrodynamic simulations spreads much further from the initial neighbouring dark matter owing to feedback from supernovae (SNe) and active galactic nuclei (AGN). We show that large-scale baryon spread is very sensitive to model implementation details, with the fiducial simba model spreading ∼40 per cent of baryons >1 Mpc away compared to ∼10 per cent for the IllustrisTNG and astrid models. Increasing the efficiency of AGN-driven outflows greatly increases baryon spread while increasing the strength of SNe-driven winds can decrease spreading due to non-linear coupling of stellar and AGN feedback. We compare total matter power spectra between hydrodynamic and paired N-body simulations and demonstrate that the baryonic spread metric broadly captures the global impact of feedback on matter clustering over variations of cosmological and astrophysical parameters, initial conditions, and (to a lesser extent) galaxy formation models. Using symbolic regression, we find a function that reproduces the suppression of power by feedback as a function of wave number (k) and baryonic spread up to $$k \sim 10\, h$$ Mpc−1 in SIMBA while highlighting the challenge of developing models robust to variations in galaxy formation physics implementation. 

Abstract Recent work has pointed out the potential existence of a tight relation between the cosmological parameter Ω m , at fixed Ω b , and the properties of individual galaxies in state-of-the-art cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. In this paper, we investigate whether such a relation also holds for galaxies from simulations run with a different code that makes use of a distinct subgrid physics: Astrid. We also find that in this case, neural networks are able to infer the value of Ω m with a ∼10% precision from the properties of individual galaxies, while accounting for astrophysics uncertainties, as modeled in Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning (CAMELS). This tight relationship is present at all considered redshifts, z ≤ 3, and the stellar mass, the stellar metallicity, and the maximum circular velocity are among the most important galaxy properties behind the relation. In order to use this method with real galaxies, one needs to quantify its robustness: the accuracy of the model when tested on galaxies generated by codes different from the one used for training. We quantify the robustness of the models by testing them on galaxies from four different codes: IllustrisTNG, SIMBA, Astrid, and Magneticum. We show that the models perform well on a large fraction of the galaxies, but fail dramatically on a small fraction of them. Removing these outliers significantly improves the accuracy of the models across simulation codes. 

ABSTRACT Feedback from active galactic nuclei and stellar processes changes the matter distribution on small scales, leading to significant systematic uncertainty in weak lensing constraints on cosmology. We investigate how the observable properties of group-scale haloes can constrain feedback’s impact on the matter distribution using Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS). Extending the results of previous work to smaller halo masses and higher wavenumber, k, we find that the baryon fraction in haloes contains significant information about the impact of feedback on the matter power spectrum. We explore how the thermal Sunyaev Zel’dovich (tSZ) signal from group-scale haloes contains similar information. Using recent Dark Energy Survey weak lensing and Atacama Cosmology Telescope tSZ cross-correlation measurements and models trained on CAMELS, we obtain 10 per cent constraints on feedback effects on the power spectrum at $$k \sim 5\, h\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$$. We show that with future surveys, it will be possible to constrain baryonic effects on the power spectrum to $$\mathcal {O}(\lt 1~{{\ \rm per\ cent}})$$ at $$k = 1\, h\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$$ and $$\mathcal {O}(3~{{\ \rm per\ cent}})$$ at $$k = 5\, h\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$$ using the methods that we introduce here. Finally, we investigate the impact of feedback on the matter bispectrum, finding that tSZ observables are highly informative in this case. 

ABSTRACT We forecast the prospects for cross-correlating future line intensity mapping (LIM) surveys with the current and future Ly-α forest measurements. Using large cosmological hydrodynamic simulations, we model the emission from the CO rotational transition in the CO Mapping Array Project LIM experiment at the 5-yr benchmark and the Ly-α forest absorption signal for extended Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BOSS), Dark energy survey instrument (DESI), and Prime Focus multiplex Spectroscopy survey (PFS). We show that CO × Ly-α forest significantly enhances the detection signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of CO, with up to $$300{{\ \rm per\, cent}}$$ improvement when correlated with the PFS Ly-α forest survey and a 50–75 per cent enhancement with the available eBOSS or the upcoming DESI observations. This is competitive with even CO × spectroscopic galaxy surveys. Furthermore, our study suggests that the clustering of CO emission is tightly constrained by CO × Ly-α forest due to the increased sensitivity and the simplicity of Ly-α absorption modelling. Foreground contamination or systematics are expected not to be shared between LIM and Ly-α forest observations, providing an unbiased inference. Ly-α forest will aid in detecting the first LIM signals. We also estimate that [C ii] × Ly-α forest measurements from Experiment for Cryogenic Large-Aperture Intensity Mapping and DESI/eBOSS should have a larger S/N than planned [C ii] × quasar observations by about an order of magnitude. 

Abstract We discover analytic equations that can infer the value of Ω_mfrom the positions and velocity moduli of halo and galaxy catalogs. The equations are derived by combining a tailored graph neural network (GNN) architecture with symbolic regression. We first train the GNN on dark matter halos from GadgetN-body simulations to perform field-level likelihood-free inference, and show that our model can infer Ω_mwith ∼6% accuracy from halo catalogs of thousands ofN-body simulations run with six different codes: Abacus, CUBEP³M, Gadget, Enzo, PKDGrav3, and Ramses. By applying symbolic regression to the different parts comprising the GNN, we derive equations that can predict Ω_mfrom halo catalogs of simulations run with all of the above codes with accuracies similar to those of the GNN. We show that, by tuning a single free parameter, our equations can also infer the value of Ω_mfrom galaxy catalogs of thousands of state-of-the-art hydrodynamic simulations of the CAMELS project, each with a different astrophysics model, run with five distinct codes that employ different subgrid physics: IllustrisTNG, SIMBA, Astrid, Magneticum, SWIFT-EAGLE. Furthermore, the equations also perform well when tested on galaxy catalogs from simulations covering a vast region in parameter space that samples variations in 5 cosmological and 23 astrophysical parameters. We speculate that the equations may reflect the existence of a fundamental physics relation between the phase-space distribution of generic tracers and Ω_m, one that is not affected by galaxy formation physics down to scales as small as 10h⁻¹kpc. 

Abstract We train graph neural networks to perform field-level likelihood-free inference using galaxy catalogs from state-of-the-art hydrodynamic simulations of the CAMELS project. Our models are rotational, translational, and permutation invariant and do not impose any cut on scale. From galaxy catalogs that only contain 3D positions and radial velocities of ∼1000 galaxies in tiny ( 25 h − 1 Mpc ) 3 volumes our models can infer the value of Ω m with approximately 12% precision. More importantly, by testing the models on galaxy catalogs from thousands of hydrodynamic simulations, each having a different efficiency of supernova and active galactic nucleus feedback, run with five different codes and subgrid models—IllustrisTNG, SIMBA, Astrid, Magneticum, SWIFT-EAGLE—we find that our models are robust to changes in astrophysics, subgrid physics, and subhalo/galaxy finder. Furthermore, we test our models on 1024 simulations that cover a vast region in parameter space—variations in five cosmological and 23 astrophysical parameters—finding that the model extrapolates really well. Our results indicate that the key to building a robust model is the use of both galaxy positions and velocities, suggesting that the network has likely learned an underlying physical relation that does not depend on galaxy formation and is valid on scales larger than ∼10 h −1 kpc.